Current-year comparison
01
Introduction
A clearer way to look at stock market investments
BEMART is an informative initiative focused on stock market investments. Our intention is to present the characteristics of the industry and outline our perspective on returns that may be achievable in the U.S. stock markets.
Any information presented here does not constitute an investment offer or investment recommendation in any form. Returns presented for the BEMART strategy represent backtested, hypothetical performance only.
02
Nature and characteristics of stock investment recommendations
Four questions every investor should ask
If someone offers you a financial investment, ask these questions. An unwillingness or inability to answer them may indicate that the offer is not being made with sufficient professional or ethical competence.
- 01
What has been the cumulative return of the investment—whether backtested or achieved in practice—over the past 20–30 years?
- 02
What has been the net annual return of this investment in each of the past 20–30 years?
- 03
What is the investment’s total annual cost, including front-end, management, performance, custody and account fees?
- 04
What are the portfolio’s maximum intra-year drawdown and maximum year-end drawdown?
03
S&P 500 Index vs. average hedge fund
The S&P 500 Index is still cool
The average performance of hedge funds and investment funds has historically underperformed the S&P 500 Index across long-, medium- and even shorter-term periods. This means an investor who simply allocates capital to an S&P 500 ETF may outperform the average hedge fund manager—without incurring hedge fund fees. For investors committed to the technology sector, a Nasdaq-100 ETF may also be a good choice. However, it is important to bear in mind the 2000–2010 period, during which the index suffered a 70% decline and was still approximately 40% below its starting level at the end of the decade in 2010. With these risks in mind, the Invesco QQQ ETF can be considered a suitable investment tool.
The first step is always thisPlease provide the cost and return comparison of your stock market investment recommendation relative to the S&P 500 Index.
04
BEMART strategy
Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat
The backtested BEMART strategy invested in stocks of U.S. companies associated with commodities, alongside diversified U.S. stocks from other industries. The portfolio was constructed on an equal-weight basis and rebalanced annually.
Calculations use U.S. stock price data freely available online and cover the period from 1989 to 2026.
“If you can’t handle watching your stock holdings drop by 50%, you shouldn’t be in the stock market.”
— Warren Buffett
Risk perspective
Maximum drawdown
BEMARTS&P 500
Year-end
Intra-year
Hypothetical backtested BEMART performance, 1989–2026.
Rebased comparison
BEMART vs. S&P vs. Gold · 1999–2026
Technology comparison
BEMART TECH vs NASDAQ 100 (1999–2026)
05
Summary
Our long-term view remains focused on the United States
Over the next five to ten years, we do not expect the United States to lose its position as the world’s leading—or second-largest by purchasing power parity—economic power in any significant way. Even if its relative dominance gradually declines, it is unlikely to fundamentally alter the global economic balance.
If the U.S. were to experience deep and structural changes affecting both its global and domestic economic position, the consequences would inevitably extend to virtually every major economy. Such a shift would be a global event rather than a U.S.-specific one.
Therefore, for long-term stock investors, we believe the U.S. stock market continues to offer the most attractive opportunities. Within that market, we would favor a portfolio with an overweight allocation to commodity-related sectors. This view is broadly consistent with the macroeconomic framework presented by Zoltan Pozsar.
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